THE RIVALRY between the campaigns of front-runner Sen. Benigno Aquino Jr. and his closest opponent, Sen. Manuel Villar, has turned cut-throat with less than four months to go before the May 10 elections.
On Friday, the Villar camp alerted journalists to the results of a Social Weather Stations candidate preference survey apparently showing that Villar had cut down the lead of Aquino to eight percent, if the two were to be pitted in a one-on-one race.
If the duel is only between Aquino and Villar, the SWS said, the former’s 52 percent was “within striking distance” of Villar’s 44 percent, leading the Villar camp to crow that the latter was “regaining momentum.”
The “undecided” in this two-man race configuration was, however, pegged at 4 percent.
The survey, according to the SWS, also revealed that Aquino had lost his vote-rich bailiwick, northern and Central Luzon, to Villar. Aquino got only 31.33 percent while Villar took 41.33 percent in the region.
Mental dishonesty
Aquino immediately fired off a reaction, saying that the public was being misled.
Apart from the what-if, two-horse scenario, it appears that the results were from the same survey that the SWS conducted on Dec. 27 to 28, 2009, commissioned by Villar ally Rep. Ronaldo Zamora, and whose results were released by Villar’s office last Jan. 8.
In the results of that survey in which the names of eight presidential aspirants were included, Aquino polled 44 percent to Villar’s 33 percent. The latter’s lead narrowed to 11 percent.
Yesterday, Aquino accused the Villar camp of attempting to condition the minds of the public into thinking that Villar was actually catching up with him by releasing the results of the same “biased” survey it had commissioned repeatedly.
‘Illusion of bandwagon’
“It’s a sort of mental dishonesty when you release the results of the same survey in pieces just to show that there is a narrowing trend and create an illusion of a bandwagon for their candidate,” Aquino said in a phone interview.
He said the SWS survey commissioned by Zamora was being “milked” to show that he was losing his lead.
Aquino said that the release of the survey sub-sets could mislead the people into thinking that Villar was catching up on him.
“The survey had set a lot of conditions, such as one versus one or choose one of three, which is so far from the actual conditions. It’s hard to make conclusions out of these numbers,” he said.
Piecemeal release
NP spokesperson and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla said it was customary for survey results to be issued on a piecemeal basis.
“You release it one by one, do it little by little. Not for any other reason. Even SWS does that on a piecemeal basis because it is easier to digest. If you put out everything at the same time, what will happen is all the other details will be lost.”
Asked if the “one-on-one” survey was released to counter the bad publicity for Villar generated by the C-5 dispute in the Senate, Remulla said: “No, it was meant to be communicated that way. If the Liberals are trying to pass on as current the Dec. 9, 2009, survey, this one is definitely more relevant and current.”
Alerted by NP
Senate reporters were alerted to the SWS website about the results of the two-horse race scenario by a press statement from the Villar camp reacting to the survey.
The press statement quoted detained Marine Col. Ariel Querubin, an NP senatorial candidate, commenting that the survey had confirmed Villar’s supposedly regaining momentum.
“This means that more and more people are realizing that Villar is a good choice to run the nation,” Querubin said.
“It also shows that people want a leader who is compassionate and competent and not those who are uncaring and untested,” he said.
Sen. Manuel Roxas, Aquino’s running mate, said that “in whatever scenario, Noynoy is still No. 1.”
He said Aquino led by a “formidable 4 to 5 million votes in all scenarios explored.”
“The forces of reform as represented by Noynoy consistently prevail in whatever scenario they try to cook up,” he said.
In its website, the SWS said that “in view of sponsor-authorized releases of a commissioned survey, SWS is disclosing the survey’s pertinent results and technical details, for the benefit of the public.”
4 other scenarios
The question asked was: “Among the names found in this list, who will you probably vote for as President of the Philippines, if elections were held today?”
Four other scenarios were tested in the December 2009 survey.
From a list showing seven names of presidential contenders without deposed President Joseph Estrada, 49 percent chose Aquino, 38 percent went for Villar, 6 percent for Teodoro, 2 percent for Villanueva, and 1 percent each for Gordon and Madrigal, and 0.3 percent for JC de los Reyes.
From a list of seven names without administration candidate Gilberto Teodoro, Jr., the respondents chose Aquino (45 percent), Villar (35 percent), Estrada (14 percent), Gordon (2 percent), Villanueva, (2 percent), Madrigal (1 percent) and De los Reyes (0.4 percent).
From a list only showing Aquino, Teodoro and Villar, 50 percent chose Aquino, 40 percent went for Villar and 7 percent for Teodoro.
If the contest would be between Aquino, Estrada and Villar, 47 percent chose Aquino, 37 percent Villar and 14 percent Estrada.
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