Monday, November 30, 2009

Presidential Bets

This Tuesday, when aspirants for next year’s general elections beat the deadline for the filing of their certificates of candidacy, what probably will invite wider attention is the number of those seeking the presidency. The 11-day period for the filing of certificate of candidacy started on November 20 and ends Tuesday with Commission on Elections Chairman Jose A.R. Melo assuring the Comelec would be open up to midnight to accommodate late filers.

Already, we have been hearing of unfamiliar names and more are said to be seriously preparing to beat the deadline, including the more prominent ones who could be the country’s best hopes if any of them would win the electoral contest.

Those who have already filed their CoC for president and vice president are the tandems of former President Joseph Estrada and Jejomar Binay of the Partido ng Masang Pilipino-United Opposition; Noynoy Aquino and Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party, Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro and Edu Manzano of the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD, and Manny Villar and Loren Legarda of the Nacionalista Party, among others, so far.

It is significant that in filing their certificates of candidacy, the aspirants had the chance to expound, if only in gist, their visions for the country.

The coming elections, as Villar sees it, will determine whether we will continue to wallow in poverty or if we can finally climb our way out of the impoverishment that has afflicted our people for so long.

He said the country’s pressing problem is “to jointly address the plague of poverty which continued to grip majority of our people.”

Teodoro, obviously unperturbed by administration critics’ ceaseless criticisms of President Gloria Arroyo, made it clear that he intends “to continue what the Arroyo government has started.”

He emphasized he was prepared “to serve the people in the context of a peaceful Filipino society built on the rule of law that enables very citizen to pursue his dreams and renders to each citizen what is his due.”

He also promised to make indigent families automatically and universally covered by state health insurance “and shall pay no excess fees for their healthcare and hospitalization.”

After filing his CoC last Saturday, Noynoy Aquino admitted he did not have as much money as his opponents to support expensive campaign propaganda materials but assured the public he would compensate it with more effort. In the first place, he explained, his campaign is pushed through and supported by volunteers.

He did not say it, but it appears it is this kind of public support and voluntarism that is part of what he intends to inspire in his presidency, if elected.

If elected, he pledged to fight graft and corruption in government and bring about reforms “by embodying the quality of integrity, humility, and trustworthiness” in his leadership.

In the case of Estrada, he just wants to pursue his dream for the people which was cut short and negated because of his conviction for plunder which, he insists, was an injustice.

Like the four of them – Aquino, Teodoro, Estrada, and Villar – other presidential hopefuls are equally optimistic the people would support them on the strength and validity of their respective causes.

This was what former Public Works and Highway Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane Jr. believed before he abandoned his short-lived dream of becoming president when he realized the futility and “the agony and burden of joining a fight we cannot win.”

Senator Richard Gordon who, up to this writing has not filed his certificate of candidacy, has said next year’s elections “would be the most important election in the country.”

But he said he would not run blindly.

Senator Jamby Madrigal who early on announced she was definitely running in next year’s polls has not been heard of late about her presidential intention.

There were some five or six others who have filed their CoC for president early in the day, including one whose ultimate dream is to run for the White House after winning the 2010 elections.

How Automated Election Works

The Commission on Elections recently demonstrated how the 2010 automated polls will work and explained how this system will improve the electoral process.


President Joseph Estrada files Certificate of Candidacy

"I still have the vote of the masses."


This was the declaration of former President Joseph Estrada, who takes a second crack at the presidency after filing his certificate of candidacy at the Commission on Elections office in Intramuros, Manila.

Estrada, standard-bearer of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, said he is confident that the masses, mostly people living in squalor, will be voting for him in next year’s presidential elections.

The former president’s statement came a day after Sen. Manny Villar, standard-bearer of the Nacionalista Party, held a proclamation rally in Tondo, Manila, to bolster his claim that he has the vote of the masses.


Villar said he was born and raised by his parents in one of the rickety houses in Tondo.

Clad in identical orange shirts, Villar and Estrada filed their COCs together with their respective parties’ senatorial candidates. Their supporters likewise donned similar colors.

Estrada was ousted from office in 2001 following allegations of graft and corruption. Villar, meanwhile, served as House Speaker at that time and was instrumental in spawning an impeachment trial for Estrada at the Senate.

The two have publicly reconciled since.

Estrada, convicted of plunder and later pardoned, filed his candidacy despite legal challenges and immediate objections to his political comeback.

Celebrity Candidates for 2010 Election

Filing of CoCs

Showbiz personalities also descended on Intramuros, Manila to file their CoCs.

Among the early birds were Lani Mercado for Congress, Alfred Vargas and Ogie Diaz for Quezon City councilors, Alma Moreno for Parañaque councilor, and Ara Mina for Quezon City 3rd district councilor.

They were accompanied by their respective families, friends and supporters.

Aiko Melendez is also running for QC vice-mayor under former president Joseph Estrada’s political party.

In Tacloban, actor Richard Gomez filed his CoC for representative of Ormoc. He is running under Liberal Party of presidential aspirant Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III.

Former actress Jobelle Salvador also caught many by surprise when she formalized her bid to run for vice-mayor of Makati.

Re-electionist Senators Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. and Jinggoy Estrada, actor Christopher de Leon (for Batangas congressman), and singer Imelda Papin (for senator) will file their CoCs on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, re-electionist Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos has this advice to her fellow actor-politicians: “"Intelligence is important but it's not all intelligence. Kailangan may puso ka at may pulso ka sa mamamayan at handa kang magsakripisyo." - Source: ABS-CBN News

Dolphy, Willie endorse Villar

The election fever has again hit the entertainment industry.

Political affiliations and ambitions of celebrities became clear a day before the deadline for the filing of certificate of candidacy (CoC) expires. Next year’s election is again expected to be star-studded as many stars are seen to actively participate in the process.

Some celebrities have already been to the Commission on Elections to file their CoCs, ending months of speculations about their political plans. Others, meanwhile, have endorsed their respective bets in the 2010 elections.

King of Comedy Dolphy and popular noontime host Willie Revillame, two of the biggest names in show business, for instance, joined the fray by formally endorsing the presidential bid of Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar of the Nacionalista Party (NP).

On Sunday evening, Dolphy showed up at NP’s proclamation rally in Tondo, Manila. He was introduced on stage by Revillame, a known Villar supporter.

In his speech, Dolphy apparently tried to win the crowd by declaring that he, like Villar, grew up in Tondo.

"Noong sinabi sa akin na tiga-Tondo ang tatakbo, kailangan tulungan natin. Ayaw niyo ba na tiga-Tondo ang magiging presidente?” said Dolphy, addressing thousands of people who trooped to Macario Sakay Plaza.

Dolphy, along with his back-up singer and guitarist known as "Brad Pitt from Cainta," also performed songs during the proclamation rally. Aside from Dolphy and Revillame, "Wowowee" host Valerie Concepcion also attended the event.

Source: ABS-CBN News

Pulse Asia's October 2009 Nationwide Survey on Vice-Presidential Preferences for the May 2010 Elections

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Senator Manuel A. Roxas II emerges as the favored vice-presidential bet in October 2009

Almost four in ten Filipinos (37%) would vote for Senator Manuel A. Roxas II as vice-president if the May 2010 elections were held at the time of the survey. Senator Roxas leads the other vice-presidentiables in several geographic areas and socio-economic classes (32% to 49%). In Balance Luzon and Mindanao, however, his lead over Senator Loren Legarda (32% versus 25% and 33% versus 28% respectively) is a marginal one, i.e. within the sample's margin of error. Statistically speaking, the two vice-presidential hopefuls could have nearly the same level of voter preferences in these two areas. The same observation could also be made regarding their comparative voter preferences among the poorest Class E (33%vs. 25%).

At the national level, Senator Legarda finds herself in second place in the vice-presidential race (23%) while Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay and Vice-President de Castro share third place (13% and 11%, respectively). Six other probable vice-presidential bets score voter preferences of 4% or less while only 4% of Filipinos are not inclined to support any vice-presidential candidate.

There are no significant movements in the voter preferences of those individuals included in Pulse Asia’s August and October 2009 vice-presidential probes as changes range only from -4 percentage points for Vice-President de Castro to +4 percentage points for Senator Legarda. [No comparative data are available for Senators Aquino and Roxas as their presidential and vice-presidential voter preferences, respectively, are being probed by Pulse Asia for the first time since October 2007.] Source: http://pulseasia.com.ph

Pulse Asia's October 2009 Nationwide Survey on Presidential Preferences for the May 2010 Elections

PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Senator Benigno C. Aquino III leads all surveyed presidential hopefuls/presidentiables by a big margin. The reason most-often cited in expressing a voting preference for a possible presidential candidate is the latter's clean public record ("malinis") or, alternatively, not being corrupt "hindi kurakot".

With a little over half a year before the May 2010 elections, and less than a month before the filing of certificates of candidacy, the electoral scene saw some changes with the entry of Senator Benigno C. Aquino III into the presidential race. In October 2009, 44% of Filipinos express support for the presidential bid of Senator Aquino while in second place is Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (19%). The only other possible presidential candidates to score double-digit voter preferences are Senator Francis G. Escudero (13%) and former President Joseph Estrada (11%). The other individuals included in the presidential probe register voter preferences of at most 4%. Less than one in ten Filipinos (4%) does not have a favored presidential candidate at the moment.

Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, Senator Aquino enjoys majority voter preferences in the best-off Class ABC (51%) and the Visayas (53%). Meanwhile, big pluralities of those in the rest of Luzon and Mindanao (both at 41%) and Classes D and E (both at 44%), as well as a near majority of Metro Manilans (47%), would elect Senator Aquino to the presidency if the May 2010 elections were held at the time of the survey.

With Senator Aquino joining the presidential race, the other personalities who used to be in the lead experienced a decline in their voter preferences. Between August and October 2009, the biggest drop in electoral support is recorded by Vice-President Noli L. de Castro (-12 percentage points). The voter preferences of Senator Villar and former President Estrada also decline during this period (-6 and -8 percentage points, respectively).

Around two in ten Filipinos (21.2%) are voting for a particular presidential candidate because he/she is not corrupt or is malinis – a reason cited by fewer respondents in May and August 2009 (7.1% and 6.3%, respectively). It may be recalled that in May 2009, the leading reason for voting was a candidate’s being helpful to others (34.0%) while in August 2009, the top reasons cited were a candidate’s having many accomplishments (25.3%) and his/her being pro-poor (20.3%). Currently, 14% are motivated to vote for a presidential candidate because of his/her many accomplishments, 12.2% cite a candidate’s being pro-poor, and 12.0% favor one candidate over another because he/she helps others, with 6.6% mentioning being helpful to overseas Filipinos workers (OFWs) in particular.

In contrast, the less often-mentioned reasons for electing a presidential candidate include the good reputation of his/her family (4.2%) and his/her being virtuous or mabait (3.7%), knowledgeable and experienced (3.6%), and religious (3.2%). A host of other reasons are mentioned by 15.0% of Filipinos including, among others, a candidate’s being intelligent (3.0%), approachable (2.5%), and trustworthy (2.2%).

Source: http://pulseasia.com.ph

Pulse Asia's October 2009 Nationwide Survey on Senatorial Preferences for the May 2010 Elections

SENATORIAL RACE: 14 out of 66 individuals included in the senatorial probe have a statistical chance of winning, with Senator Jinggoy Estrada leading the list of probable winners

With more media attention currently being devoted to the presidential and vice-presidential contests, the level of public interest in the senatorial race appears to have declined between August and October 2009. Three months ago, 57% of Filipinos already had a complete senatorial line-up for the May 2010 elections but now fewer Filipinos (40%) report having a complete senatorial list. And while Filipinos were naming a mean of ten and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their favored senatorial candidates back in August 2009, the mean figure is now down to eight while the median figure has declined to nine. (See Tables 7 and 8).

Currently leading the senatorial race is Senator Jinggoy Estrada, whose overall voter preference of 46.7% translates to a statistical ranking of 1st to 2nd places. Senator Estrada is followed closely by Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (42.4%) who is ranked 1st to 3rd. In 2nd to 7th places is former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (38.6%) while 3rd to 7th places are shared by Senator Pia S. Cayetano (37.2%), Senator Revilla (36.6%), Makati City Mayor Binay (36.6%), and Senator Roxas (36.3%). Senator Jamby A.S. Madrigal (31.6%) and Atty. Aquilino L. Pimentel (31.4%) are in 8th to 13th places while three former senators are presently ranked 8th to 14th – former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director-General Ralph G. Recto (30.6%), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (28.5%), and Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairperson Vicente C. Sotto III (28.2%). Completing the list of probable winners are Mr. Willie Revillame (27.4%) who ranks 8th to 15th and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (26.6%) who is in 10th to 15th places. A negligible percentage of Filipinos (5.0%) is not inclined to vote for any of the probable senatorial candidates whose voter preferences are probed in this survey.

Among the probable winners, no improvements in voter preferences are recorded between August and October 2009. Instead, levels of electoral support for the following decline during this period – Senate President Enrile (-5.5 percentage points), former NEDA Director-General Recto (-7.0 percentage points), Senator Madrigal (-7.3 percentage points), former Senate President Drilon (-7.7 percentage points), Senator Cayetano (-9.4 percentage points), Senator Revilla (-9.8 percentage points), and Senator Roxas (-12.0 percentage points). The 13 probable winners for whom comparative data are available lost an average of 5.9 percentage points in their voter preferences between August and October 2009. Meanwhile, among those outside the winners’ circle, the most marked changes in voter preferences are recorded by former Optical Media Board (OMB) Chairperson Eduardo B. Manzano (-10.9 percentage points), former Senator Juan Flavier (-6.4 percentage points), Bukidnon Representative Teofisto Guingona III (-5.2 percentage points), Senator Richard Gordon (-5.0 percentage points), and Department of Tourism (DOT) Secretary Joseph Ace H. Durano (-4.9 percentage points).

Arroyo to run for Congress

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo will run for a congressional seat in the second district of her home province in Pampanga.

Arroyo, who made the announcement in an interview aired live over government-run station dzRB, said she realized she could not completely leave public service yet after nine years in Malacanang, adding that “it is emblazoned in my DNA.”

“After much contemplation, I realized I am not ready to step down completely from public service. Gaya ng alam ninyo, hiniling din ako ng mga mamamayan ng aking tahanang distrito sa Pampanga na manatili sa buhay publiko (As you all know, constituents in my home district in Pampanga are asking me to stay in public office).”

“So after much soul-searching I have decided to respond affirmatively to their call,” she added.

“To that end, I will file my candidacy for Congress in order to serve the hardworking people of my home province. Ang paglingkod sa publiko ay banal na trabaho. (Serving the public is a noble job). At a very young age it is emblazoned in my DNA,” she said.

Arroyo, who served nine years in office, becomes the first Philippine president who will seek a lower position as a member of the House of Representatives after her term ends.

The President is expected file her certificate of candidacy on December 1 through a representative, according to her lawyer Romulo Macalintal.

Arroyo’s eldest son, Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo is the incumbent representative in the province’s second district.

Arroyo assured that her congressional run would not get in the way of her presidential duties.

“My bid for Congress will be spirited but secondary to my duty as President. We have come too far and too much is at stake for me to waver in these last few months on my commitment to the people of the nation. I will keep a steady hand on the tiller of the ship of state,” she said.

She said she would devote only few time for campaigning in her district.

As a member of the House of Representatives, she also vowed to “work cooperatively with the incoming administration so they can hit the ground running.”

Arroyo said she will ensure that the needed resources are poured to the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to have fair and credible automated elections.

Not seeking immunity

She dismissed talks she was seeking a congressional seat to become Prime Minister when Congress shifts to a parliamentary form of government.

“That is so hypothetical, I won’t even bother to speculate about it,” she said in the interview following her statement.

She said she was not also seeking the post to have immunity from suits.

“The only congressional immunity is from libel suit or utterances made in congressional session, hindi yun ang habol ko (That is not what I am after), this reflects my ongoing commitment to public service,” she said.

Priding her self for moving the economy forward, creating jobs, and establishing good international relations during her term, Arroyo said she intends to give the same effort, this time to her province mates.

She said she was looking forward to stepping down in June next year, but wanted to be continuously involved. She said she thought of going back to the academe to teach or work for non-profit organizations to push forward environment and women’s issues.

The signs have been present that she was not retiring yet.

Last Friday, a group of farmers form Pampanga trooped to Malacanang and urged her to continue serving them by running next year.

On Thursday, the Pampanga Mayors’ League circulated a resolution signed by 20 town mayors urging Arroyo to “heed the clamor form her constituency to run as second district representative…in Pampanga.”

Arroyo is a registered voter in Lubao, the hometown of her father, the late President Diosdado Macapagal. Lubao is among the six towns in the district, the second vote-rich area in Pampanga after the third district.

The President has visited Pampanga 47 times this year, 18 of which were made in Lubao, according to Philippine Daily Inquirer report.

Earlier in the day, at the Commission on Elections office in Manila, the President’s lawyer said the President would make her decision known by lunch today in Pampanga.

“The President has not given definite word but based on her body language, she seriously considers running,” said election lawyer Romulo Macalintal. via: http://www.inquirer.net/

NAMFREL Condemns the brutal politically-motivated killings in Maguindanao

The National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) strongly condemns the brutal politically-motivated killings in Maguindanao of political supporters and journalists.

We call upon President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to take a firm and decisive action immediately to go after the perpetrators of this heinous crime, and for the government to consider this and other recent tragedies involving elected officials and election staff not mere election-related violence but criminal acts that need to be dealt with to the fullest extent of the law.

For Maguindanao, we call on President Arroyo to create an impartial investigative team composed of the NBI, PNP, CHR, & DOJ, that would look into this matter and submit a report that will be made public within a reasonable time. We also call upon the PNP to completely revamp their ranks in the province to ensure that their people are nonpartisan.

Once perpetrators are positively identified, we urge that they be immediately arrested and brought to Manila.
We call upon the COMELEC to move their Maguindanao office to another location, perhaps to the former provincial capitol in Simuay, Sultan Kudarat. We also urge the COMELEC to consider holding an early election in the ARMM, perhaps one week early, and to put the entire ARMM, especially Maguindanao, under COMELEC control.

NAMFREL appeals to all parties concerned to restrain themselves from retributive acts of justice, and we condemn the pervading climate of impunity, coercion and terror to maintain or secure elective positions, that give rise to warlordism and further violence.

We urge the dismantling of all private armies and the confiscation of their firearms, starting with known warring factions not only in Maguindanao but also in places that historically are considered hot spots every election.

We call on the COMELEC to impose the total gun ban now and not wait until January 2010. We call on the PNP to strictly implement the ban to prevent further violence as we approach the 2010 elections.
We call upon the PNP to expedite the investigations and resolution of past incidences of violence against elected officials and political rivals, to have the will to prosecute the perpetrators of the crime regardless of political positions and connections. We urge both the AFP and the PNP to ensure their non-partisanship especially on the ground.

NAMFREL also calls upon the Filipino people and on its volunteers nationwide to strengthen their ranks, exercise vigilance, and in their own respective areas lead in identifying and monitoring potential threat to the security situation.

Namfrel supports the COMELEC and encourages the PNP to fulfill their tasks to ensure the holding of a truly credible and peaceful elections in May 2010.