SENATORIAL RACE: 14 out of 66 individuals included in the senatorial probe have a statistical chance of winning, with Senator Jinggoy Estrada leading the list of probable winners
With more media attention currently being devoted to the presidential and vice-presidential contests, the level of public interest in the senatorial race appears to have declined between August and October 2009. Three months ago, 57% of Filipinos already had a complete senatorial line-up for the May 2010 elections but now fewer Filipinos (40%) report having a complete senatorial list. And while Filipinos were naming a mean of ten and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their favored senatorial candidates back in August 2009, the mean figure is now down to eight while the median figure has declined to nine. (See Tables 7 and 8).
Currently leading the senatorial race is Senator Jinggoy Estrada, whose overall voter preference of 46.7% translates to a statistical ranking of 1st to 2nd places. Senator Estrada is followed closely by Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (42.4%) who is ranked 1st to 3rd. In 2nd to 7th places is former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (38.6%) while 3rd to 7th places are shared by Senator Pia S. Cayetano (37.2%), Senator Revilla (36.6%), Makati City Mayor Binay (36.6%), and Senator Roxas (36.3%). Senator Jamby A.S. Madrigal (31.6%) and Atty. Aquilino L. Pimentel (31.4%) are in 8th to 13th places while three former senators are presently ranked 8th to 14th – former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director-General Ralph G. Recto (30.6%), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (28.5%), and Dangerous Drugs Board (DDB) Chairperson Vicente C. Sotto III (28.2%). Completing the list of probable winners are Mr. Willie Revillame (27.4%) who ranks 8th to 15th and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (26.6%) who is in 10th to 15th places. A negligible percentage of Filipinos (5.0%) is not inclined to vote for any of the probable senatorial candidates whose voter preferences are probed in this survey.
Among the probable winners, no improvements in voter preferences are recorded between August and October 2009. Instead, levels of electoral support for the following decline during this period – Senate President Enrile (-5.5 percentage points), former NEDA Director-General Recto (-7.0 percentage points), Senator Madrigal (-7.3 percentage points), former Senate President Drilon (-7.7 percentage points), Senator Cayetano (-9.4 percentage points), Senator Revilla (-9.8 percentage points), and Senator Roxas (-12.0 percentage points). The 13 probable winners for whom comparative data are available lost an average of 5.9 percentage points in their voter preferences between August and October 2009. Meanwhile, among those outside the winners’ circle, the most marked changes in voter preferences are recorded by former Optical Media Board (OMB) Chairperson Eduardo B. Manzano (-10.9 percentage points), former Senator Juan Flavier (-6.4 percentage points), Bukidnon Representative Teofisto Guingona III (-5.2 percentage points), Senator Richard Gordon (-5.0 percentage points), and Department of Tourism (DOT) Secretary Joseph Ace H. Durano (-4.9 percentage points).
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