Pulse Asia's December 2009 Survey

The survey fieldwork was conducted from December 8 to 10, 2009 using face-to-face interviews. Immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey, the following developments dominated the news headlines: (1) declaration of Martial Law in Maguindanao; (2) the convening of Congress to review the declaration of martial law in Maguindanao; (3) filing of cases in the Supreme Court to nullify Martial Law; (4) the clash between Ampatuan supporters and police in Maguindanao; (5) the unseating of Bulacan Governor Mendoza and Isabela Governor Padaca by COMELEC; and (6) the disqualification cases filed against President Arroyo.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a +/- 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level:   +/- 6% for Metro Manila,   +/-4% for the rest of Luzon and  +/-5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Face-to-face field interviews for this project were conducted from December 8 to 10, 2009.  (Those interested in further technical details concerning the surveys’ questionnaires and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.)

The December 2009 survey had 15 names included in the roster of presidential and vice presidential contenders and 80 names for the list of senatorial candidates.  The names were based on the official report of the Commission on Elections on those who filed their Certificates of Candidacy (COC) as of midnight of December 1, 2009. Those who were nominated by registered national political parties (i.e., Bayan Muna, Kapatiran, Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, Lakas-Kampi-CMD, Liberal Party, Nacionalista Party, Nationalist People’s Coalition, PDP-Laban, Promdi, Philippine Green Republican Party, Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) or who have been allowed to run or have held national elective positions were automatically included in the lists (for presidential, vice presidential and senatorial candidates).   The additional names were drawn randomly from among those who remained in the official list of the COMELEC.

Pulse Asia’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes.  Pulse Asia undertook this pre-electoral survey on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

Senator Benigno C. Aquino III continues to lead other presidential candidates by a sizeable margin

With less than five months before the May 10, 2010 elections, presidential candidate Senator Benigno “Noynoy” C. Aquino (Liberal Party) garners the support of 45% of the voters in the December 2009 national pre-elections survey.   Only two other contenders obtain double-digit support: Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. (Nacionalista Party) with 23% and former President, Joseph “Erap” Estrada (Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino) with 19%. They are statistically tied for second place owing to the survey’s margin of error.

For the December 2009 survey, Senator Aquino obtains majority support among the voters in the Visayas (52%) and near majority support from the well-off ABC socio-economic class.   His electoral preference is basically at the same level across the other areas and socio-economic classes (NCR, Balance of Luzon and Mindanao and SECs D and E).

Compared to the October 2009 Ulat ng Bayan survey, the support for Sen. Aquino III remains virtually unchanged. On the other hand, there is a significant improvement in voter preference for former President Estrada (8 percentage points, from 11% to 19%) and marginal increases in the support for Sen. Villar (+4 percentage points, from 19% to 23%) and Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard bearer Gilbert ‘Gibo” Teodoro (by 3 percentage points, from 2% to 5%).

Given a predetermined set of reasons to choose from, 27% of Filipinos say that they opted for a candidate because he/she cared for the poor, while 21% cited a candidate’s  being not corrupt or having a clean record.  The belief that a candidate is a good person (12%), can/is doing/will do something (11%) and helps/is helping others (11%) constitute the other reasons for respondents’ presidential preferences.


Virtually tied, Senator Manuel ‘Mar” A. Roxas  and Senator Loren B. Legarda, lead the vice presidential race.

Senator Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas (Liberal Party) and Senator Loren B. Legarda (Nacionalista Party) are statistically tied for first place in the vice presidential race, with each obtaining support from close to four out of ten Filipinos. Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) ranks second place, statistically speaking, with 14% of the electoral preference nationwide.

If the elections were held at the time of the survey, Senator Roxas would get a majority of votes in the Visayas (58%), while Senator Legarda would have a plurality of the votes from Balance Luzon (43%). The two front-runners register the same level of support (41%) among Mindanao voters and essentially the same support from the D and E socio-economic classes. Sen. Roxas, however, obtains near-majority support  from the relatively well-off socio-economic class ABC.

Senator Legarda is the only vice presidential candidate who registers a significant change in voter preference (a gain of 14 percentage points) since October 2009.

Declining fill-out rates in the senatorial race: only 3 out of 10 Filipinos have a complete senatorial line-up

    With less than five months before the May 2010 elections, fewer Filipinos report having a full roster of senatorial preferences.  In August, 57% of Filipinos had a complete senatorial line-up of 12 candidates. This percentage declined to 40% last October 2009 and now stands at 31%.  While Filipinos were naming a mean of 10 and a median of 12 favored prospective candidates in August 2009, the mean and median are down to eight at present . (See Tables 6 and 7).

14 out of 80 individuals included in the senatorial probe have a statistical chance of winning, with Senator Jinggoy Estrada leading the list of probable winners

Currently leading the senatorial race is Senator Jinggoy Estrada, whose overall voter preference of 55.1% translates to a statistical ranking of 1st to 3rd places. Following closely is Senator Ramon “Kap/Bong” Revilla Jr. (52.7%) who is ranked 1st to 4th, a ranking shared by Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (51.4%). Former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (48.4%) is at 2nd to 4th places, while tied for 5th to 9th places are Senator Pia Cayetano (43.1%), former National Economic and Development Authority Director-General Ralph Recto (43.1%) , Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (42.7%) and former senators Sergio Osmena and Vicente Sotto (both with 40.2%). Ilocos Norte Representative Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (31%) and Bukidnon Representative Teofisto TG Guingona III (28.6%) are tied for the 10th to 11th positions. Rounding up the list of probable winners are  Jose “Joey” De Venecia III (24.3%), Senator Manuel “Lito” Lapid (23.1%), and Muntinlupa Representative Rozzano Rufino “Ruffy” Biazon (22.9%), who are tied for 12th to 14th places.

Source: Pulse Asia Philippines